Conflicting Interests in Obama's Housing Plan
Published February 20, 2009 @ 12:56PM PT
There's a fundamental problem constraining Obama's housing proposal: housing prices are still too high. It is really difficult to stabilize a market that is still structurally unsound - i.e., the bottom really needs to fall out before we can really, truly rebuild. Susie hopes that this plan buys us some time until we're ready to "come to Jesus" around this.
Accepting the criticism that it is still too small or timid, there's a lot to like in Obama's housing proposal. What I like most is the reliance on our existing affordable housing and community development infrastructure. This plan subtly promotes the belief that we should make use of and strengthen our existing social safety net. What threatens this plan is whether the nation's largest banks will come to the table to make it work, and whether Obama, Shaun Donovan, Sheila Bair, Timothy Geithner and other leading finance and housing officials can or will compel their cooperation.
Community development and banking leaders have praised FDIC Chairwoman Sheila Bair's efforts at loan modifications in her recent takeovers of insolvent banks. Bair predicts that Obama's plan to modify loans will start to work as soon as next month. It sounds like Obama took a page from her playbook in mortgage modifications, so that's promising. It's one of several ways that the plan turns to what works at the FDIC, at HUD and in our government more generally.
I mentioned in my earlier post the adoption of HUD's affordability mandates in rewriting distressed mortgages. Another noteworthy effort in this plan is to make better use of state housing finance agencies (HFAs) to reach borrowers. HFAs carry out affordable housing programs nationwide; they are responsible for financing almost 3M affordable rental units and almost as many homes that moderate- and low-income homeowners can legitimately afford. I'm pleased to see that this is one of the places where the Obama Administration is subtly relying on our affordable housing infrastructure to carry out such an enormous and seemingly unwieldy initiative. It is a smart move, past experience tells us, to rely on existing government infrastructures during times of crisis when the private sector cannot respond as effectively (because the banks are imploding, for instance).
And that brings us back to the role of the banks. Frankly, the larger banks have different incentives around foreclosures versus modifications than smaller, community-based banks and banks in the business of working with distressed borrowers. Wilbur Ross, the owner of the biggest third party loan servicer in the country says that a combination of "greed" and concern about "impact to bank balance [sheets]" drives resistance to the reality that we need "aggressive principal modifications for borrowers most in need." He suggests a plan where the government guarantees half the reduced principle, the bank is prevented from selling off the mortgage, and if the house eventually sells at a profit the lender and owner split it.
So far the Obama Administration's willingness to take on the financial industry to embrace these new realities has been pretty weak. And Wall Street is fighting every new piece of legislation tooth and nail, or introducing fees at every turn. (My personal experience as a consumer with bureaucracies is that fees and obfuscating paperwork are often deliberate but also sometimes evidence that the many parts of the system aren't working together. I recently had one branch of my bank send me change-of-address forms that prevented me from receiving my monthly mortgage invoice even though the office that sent those invoices had been doing so to my new address for 5 months. WTH???)
So how much can we really expect to accomplish with this well-intentioned, modest plan if competing interests are not brought in line? I have no idea, and I'm not inclined to believe that the Obama Administration, even with bank cooperation, would ever announce a plan as vast enough as we need to halt and rebuild from the current economic collapse. Honestly, this is a man-made disaster and there is always permanent loss, usually by the most vulnerable, from such catastrophic events. Obama never struck me as a particularly bold President, and even if he were, I think the damage done by Bush (and to a much lesser extent Clinton) is too deep to really fully redress.
Take the plan's investment in Fannie and Freddie. I realize this $400B ($200+$200) is a trigger for angry Americans over more money being plowed into failing or flailing financial firms. On the one hand, I agree with progressive economists who believe Fannie and Freddie play a fundamental role as government guarantors in of our housing market, including putting homeownership stably within reach for lower-income individuals and providing financing for low-income rental housing. But beyond that ideological commitment, I have no idea whether Fannie and Freddie need to be phased out for new 21st century government solutions or whether in our three decade effort to hobble government so much it can no longer effectively work, we've just severely maimed the two mortgage holders in the process.
My sense with the Obama Administration is that they're trying to work with what they have - a severely distressed government with corporate entanglements so deep and leadership so far removed from its populace and a population so freaked out and disenchanted that these incremental steps are the best we can expect.
At least that's the conclusion I'm at at the end of this post.
Photo from the Obama-Biden Transition Project
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Comments (17)
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Leigh is a PhD candidate in urban planning at MIT, and a consultant on U.S. Gulf Coast recovery. She sits on the Board of the Allston-Brighton Community Development Corporation in Boston, and has worked with non-profits, foundations and local governments on policies and programs aimed at reducing urban poverty and inequality.

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I also like this Time magazine summary of the plan:
http://www.time.com/time/business/article/0,8599,1880473,00.html?iid=tsmodule
Posted by Leigh Graham on 02/20/2009 @ 01:14PM PT
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Our President has said repeatedly, Americans must live within their means. Think, within their means, don't sign on the dotted line before YOU do the research. He has asked Americans to be accountable and except personal responsibility for taking out loans they couldn't afford. No more keeping up with the Jones's. The Jones's are homeless too.
Keep up the good work!
Posted by leatrice brantley on 02/20/2009 @ 03:21PM PT
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Thank you.
Posted by Wil Brander on 02/20/2009 @ 05:56PM PT
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Wall Street doesn't like it because it's going to make THEM be responsible TOO if it gets implemented in any way that's going to work. Many of the problem loans are problems (or were problems) because of problems in how the loans were issued. Like inflation of prices by the supposedly independent appraisers or issuing credit where credit (or that much credit) never should have been issued.
Ultimately though, Leatrice is also right. American consumers, generally speaking, have NO idea how to use credit responsibly. As long as checks aren't bouncing and collectors aren't calling, too many thing everything is fine - which isn't necessarily true. Ask people like my sister and her husband who just managed to have a house of (credit) cards fold that lost THEIR house AND our MOTHER's (they'd arranged to "refinance her home in their name for better terms"). All it took was one briefly lost job because they'd stretched everything so thin.
Posted by Danetta Amschler on 02/21/2009 @ 07:15AM PT
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There's a major factor in the current raping of the poor I hear nothing about: bank fees, penalties, and interest rates on credit cards. The giant banks we have been shovelling money to make most of their profits from fees and penalties. Bank of America and CitiBank are now instantly increasing credit card interest to a whopping $29.99% if you miss one payment. The only people affected by this are the poor who are living on the edge.
Let me give you two personal examples of how this works and how incredibly unfair the system has become:
1. This summer on two different occasions my bank, after holding a local check for four days (I could have walked one block and gotten cash for the checks) credited the check to my account at 5:01pm. At 5:00pm they charged me multiple NSF fees for items purchased with my debit card, mostly purchases less than $10. The NSF's were $36 EACH. Basically they were charging an APR of over a billion percent to loan me money for a fraction of a second while their computer balanced the account. This can only happen to people who are poor and have no cushion to fall back on. It's worse than mob lending.
2. Around Christmas time a check written to me bounced, sending my checking account deeply into the negative. The bank, despite having my e-mail address and telephone number, informed me with a letter, sent two days after the check had bounced, arriving a week later (it was Christmas time, after all). During that time the account accumulated over $300 in NSF fees. But it gets better. I noticed the bounced check quickly, got cash from the person whose check bounced, and deposited it in an ATM (I'm charged a fee to use the main counter). I then deposited several more checks in the next few days equalling over $4000. Well, my bank had blocked my account, without informing me, and by the time I finally realized this they had declined two credit card payments. The credit card companies both charged me almost $100 each for returned payment and late payments and then bounced my interest rate to 29.99%. There is no recourse whatsoever. My only fault in this is being poor but these two credit cards, which I was managing to pay down, now have monthly payments almost double what they were.
Oh, but it's my fault for accumulating the debt in the first place, right? Sure, you can say that. For years these cards had monthly payments that I could easily make and pay down. The cards got me through some rough periods, for instance a client stiffed me for three months' of work and in my scramble to pay for materials and labor as well as my mortgage and utilities I was forced to use those checks they send every month. Even with those huge expenses sitting on the card I was able to double the monthly payments and slowly decrease the amount owed. In what is a common practice, Band of America then failed to send a bill one month and my $60/mo payment increased to over $200 and the interest went up to 19%. Oddly enough, two other cards that I had not missed payments on also increased because I missed on the other card.
The mega-banks' entire profit model is based on stealing from poor people and now that the poor have run out of money they are attempting to squeeze the last drops of blood out of them to continue this profit model. To what end? Apparently they will not be punished for this criminal profit model. I hear not a peep about capping credit card interest rates or regulating penalty fees, ATM fees, and other bank charges that disproportionally effect the poor. Even our state and local governments are using the fee model to fund programs, again placing the burden on the poor. The cascade of failing mortgages is a direct result of the this increasing drain on the resources of those of us at the bottom of the economic scale. We have no money left so the banks take our houses and at the end of our lives when we become sick they take everything so there is nothing left for us to give the next generation.
We have allowed the banking industry to tear down all the protections we put in place during the Great Deppression and we need to put them back. Break up these mega banks, rebuild the wall between banks and speculation, and force them to make money the way they're supposed to: by charging reasonable interest rates on loans. Period.
There's a word for what they're doing: usury. We must stop them.
Posted by A M on 02/21/2009 @ 07:24AM PT
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Alan, please refrain from using the word "raping" as a verb here. It's extremely violent and unnecessary hyperbole that is upsetting in its imagery.
Posted by Leigh Graham on 02/24/2009 @ 11:42AM PT
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Alan even left one thing off his very good list, a growing number of banks are charging per day NSF fees on top of the item fees. That means if you don't catch it WHEN it happens - and as he pointed out, it often happens not because of what YOU do but because of how THEY process transactions or because of things YOU don't know, so you easily might not know - you can be so far behind you'll never catch up by the time you find out.
The way credit has gotten to work is absurd. If I pay Bank A's credit card on time, but pay my electric bill late why should my credit card interest go up? One late electric payment couldn't hurt anyone's credit score THAT much. Even two couldn't, unless maybe they're in a row. Still, if all my credit card payments are on time, why does Bank A care?
Then just to add insult to injury, after suffering all of this, credit reports are an impediment to employment on top of being an obstacle to housing. Which leads to a catch-22. Blech.
Posted by Danetta Amschler on 02/21/2009 @ 07:40AM PT
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I don't get how many Americans CAN live "within their means" or take "personal responsibility".
If there isn't enough affordable housing, where do our minimum wage workers live? Not just "them", but also "young families" that have to juggle day care expenses. Or "older individuals" with high medical costs.
Societies are ultimately judged by how they treat those at the "bottom". History will not be kind to us...unless, we begin to talk about "social responsibility" too.
Posted by Jody Mack on 02/21/2009 @ 12:25PM PT
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Sometimes, Jody, their situations are supplemented personally and not by society. Many do not feel responsible for the personal plight of those within society outside of family and close friends. Even in some circles, those too may be ignored. Many feel that hard work earns rewards and those not benefitting must own the blame for their circumstances, regardless of potentially mitigating circumstances.
Posted by William Pointer on 02/21/2009 @ 03:52PM PT
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I just wish that more people understood that nobody makes it "all alone". We ALL need help from somewhere. For most people, that help comes from friends and families.
Moral societies don't turn their backs on people who lack loved ones to assist them.
Posted by Jody Mack on 02/24/2009 @ 10:13AM PT
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Almost NO ONE makes it through their entire life without EVER having to turn to SOMEONE for SOMETHING. Most people have to turn at least a few times, usually to friends or family, for help of some kind. Problem is that it's becoming increasingly common for people to not have friends/family who can/will help or to not have friends/family who can/will help enough.
Yet our society continues to cling to absurdities like that it's possible to ALWAYS be "prepared" for EVERYTHING no matter what that EVERYTHING might include and no matter what circumstances might be included under ALWAYS. Such ideas are little more than platitudes and justifications for not helping where it's obvious we - as a society - SHOULD be helping.
Then there are the absurdities like that the poor some how "deserve" their suffering or did something that makes them at fault for it. These ideas are little more than variants of the above. That one does manual labor doesn't make one "deserving" of poverty and suffering. That one became disabled doesn't do so either. Or we'll even presume the disabled are "lazy"...
In many ways, how we as a nation treat the poor is increasingly approaching (if not already) a violation of human rights because of how difficult this nation makes it for the poor to obtain basic things like food, housing and medical care - no matter how well they manage finances and how hard they work if able to do so. It's almost like some backhanded and incredibly cruel and evil eugenics experiment where the nation is hoping the poor will just die off slowly and quietly.
I predict that someday our nation will be very harshly judged unless we start reforming soon. It's often been said by very wise men that a society is judged by how they treat their weakest and we are NOT doing a good job at that.
Posted by Danetta Amschler on 02/24/2009 @ 10:57AM PT
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On June 4, 1963, President Kennedy signed Executive Order 11110 (see right). The order could have—and should have—begun the process of ending the Federal Reserve money monopoly in America. Instead, President Kennedy was assassinated and a few months later the silver certificates he ordered into circulation were removed.
One thing is for certain: Fiat money cannot compete with real money. Had President Kennedy and the silver certificates survived, the Federal Reserve would have been out of business, the perpetual wars on everything could not be financed, our people would not be drowning in consumer credit debt, our economy would be anchored to value and New Year’s, 2009 would not be the eve of our destruction. Our choice is clear: End the Fed Nov. 22, 2008, or do nothing and let the bastards do to our entire nation what they did to JFK that fateful day in Dallas 45 years ago.
Executive Order 11110
AMENDMENT OF EXECUTIVE ORDER NO. 10289 AS AMENDED, RELATING TO THE PERFORMANCE OF CERTAIN FUNCTIONS AFFECTING THE DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY. By virtue of the authority vested in me by section 301 of title 3 of the United States Code, it is ordered as follows:
SECTION 1.
Executive Order No. 10289 of September 19, 1951, as amended, is hereby further amended - (a) By adding at the end of paragraph 1 thereof the following subparagraph (j): "(j) The authority vested in the President by paragraph (b) of section 43 of the Act of May 12, 1933, as amended (31 U.S.C. 821 (b)), to issue silver certificates against any silver bullion, silver, or standard silver dollars in the Treasury not then held for redemption of any outstanding silver certificates, to prescribe the denominations of such silver certificates, and to coin standard silver dollars and subsidiary silver currency for their redemption," and (b) By revoking subparagraphs (b) and (c) of paragraph 2 thereof.SECTION 2.
The amendment made by this Order shall not affect any act done, or any right accruing or accrued or any suit or proceeding had or commenced in any civil or criminal cause prior to the date of this Order but all such liabilities shall continue and may be enforced as if said amendments had not been made.JOHN F. KENNEDY, THE WHITE HOUSE, June 4, 1963
John F. Kennedy v. The Federal Reserve
On June 4, 1963, President John F. Kennedy signed Executive Order (EO) 11110 to compel the U.S. Treasury to issue paper certificates backed by silver held by the Treasury. The certificates directly challenged the authority of the Federal Reserve Bank to "loan" fiat (unbacked) money to the United States government at interest.
"The Christian Law Fellowship has exhaustively researched this matter through the Federal Register and Library of Congress. We can now safely conclude that this Executive Order has never been repealed, amended, or superseded by any subsequent Executive Order. In simple terms, it is still valid," wrote John Curran.
With EO 11110 (see above), President Kennedy returned to the federal government its constitutional responsibility "to coin money and regulate the Value thereof." Per EO 11110, the Treasury was ordered "[t]o issue silver certificates against any silver bullion, silver, or standard silver dollars in the Treasury..."
For every ounce of silver held by the U.S. Treasury, the government could introduce new money into circulation.
According to Curran, "As a result, more than $4 billion in United States Notes [USNs] were brought into circulation in $2 and $5 denominations. The $10 and $20 United States Notes were never circulated but were being printed by the Treasury Department when Kennedy was assassinated."
"United States Notes," Curran explained, "were issued as an interest-free and debt-free currency backed by silver reserves in the U.S. Treasury. We compared a ‘Federal Reserve Note [FRN]’ issued from the private central bank of the United States (the Federal Reserve Bank a/k/a Federal Reserve System), with a ‘United States Note’ from the U.S. Treasury issued by President Kennedy’s Executive Order. They almost look alike, except one says "Federal Reserve Note" on the top while the other says "United States Note". Also, the Federal Reserve Note has a green seal and serial number while the United States Note has a red seal and serial number."
Shortly after President Kennedy was assassinated on November 22, 1963, the USNs he had issued were immediately taken out of circulation (series 1958 silver certificates were also removed from circulation).
Most Americans had no idea at the time that President Kennedy’s death was tied to the issuance of silver certificates, nor did they realize that they were stolen back out of circulation soon after LBJ replaced JFK as president. People just continued using fiat FRNs as "legal tender" and are still mindlessly using them as if they were "money" today.
Had the American people understood that President Kennedy’s silver-backed USNs were real money and used them as such, demand for FRNs would have evaporated as a simple matter of economics: Trading goods and services with silver-backed USNs is an exchange of value while trading goods and services for FRNs is trading value for pieces of paper.
Think about the billions of commercial transactions that have taken place since Nov. 22, 1963. Since that time, billions of transactions have taken place with FRNs changing hands. With every exchange of goods and services for FRNs, one party holds real value and the other holds no real value. Every exchange, then, records a loss in parity. Perhaps the bill for exclusive use of FRNs (and their even more chimerical paper extensions) in immediate obligations is about $10 trillion?
Now think about how different the world would be had President Kennedy and USNs survived and America’s children grew up believing that lawful money is the only acceptable medium of commercial exchange?
President Kennedy was preceded by President Eisenhower who, in his farewell address, warned the nation of the threats posed by the emerging (congressional)/military/industrial complex. President Kennedy responded to the outgoing president’s fair warning by moving to remove the war machine’s source of funding: Federal Reserve fiat.
Because Kennedy was assassinated, because we did not understand why he was assassinated, because we hardly noticed as USNs were removed from circulation, we now live in a preplanned era of perpetual war and exist on the verge of economic collapse.
It is time to end the Fed—before it ends us.
End the Fed.us
restoretherepublic.net
Posted by Hash Cannon on 02/21/2009 @ 12:43PM PT
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Affordable housing is definitely a problem - and it's a problem in many ways. Even if an individual or family somehow finds and keeps a home, it tends to be well above the recommended (and allowed by assistance programs) 1/3 of their income. The national averages for housing cost are more like 50% of income or so, though I'll admit this figure is probably off and if anything it's low because I'm doing it from memory from workingfamilies.org. Now if an individual is having to put 50% of their income - and in many areas it's easy to HAVE to do that just to rent an apartment akin to a roach motel - they have no chance to get ahead and they're spending a LOT of money on housing that they HAVE to spend on housng that because of how the Federal Poverty Line is figured (and thus the related expense allowances are figured) they're considered to be "wasting" a lot of money on unallowed expenses.
Clearly this nation HAS to do SOMETHING about housing for those who NEED what can truly and reasonably be called affordable housing. Affordable in the sense of entry level, as in housing that can be rented by those making minimum wage or housing that's operated by assistance programs so that people like the disabled and seniors who live on various Social Security programs can rent. Not stuff like Seattle's recent "affordable housing" that provided subsidies to builders willing to build units that would rent at the median income - around $1150/mo - and would be rented to families making the region's median income (over $50K/year)...all while Seattle has a drastic shortage of true affordable housing that would house people like, oh, the POOR... I guess we who are poor aren't supposed to live in Seattle, like we're some sort of undesirable.
This nation seems to forget (speaking in generalizations, not to anyone here) that the poor can't "better themselves" or "better their situations" if every bit of their energy and money has to go into survival. If 50% or so of income goes to housing, if housing assistance to escape that problem is non-existant, if medical assistance is impossible to get without becoming even more impoverished, if food assistance doesn't begin to honestly help - what little income we who are poor have goes to patching the holes in our budgets, pinching pennies till they scream, and simply hoping we continue to survive. All too many of us eventually give up on escaping poverty, with odds like this, the chances are too slim - and most hope has long since been stolen from us since so many are all too ready to blame us for our circumstances rather than help or even argue for proper reforms.
Me? At this point, I'd be ecstatic just to have some decent housing assistance and some real medical assistance - preferably some medical assistance that didn't involve delusions like declaring my husband and I to be "two families of one". I live below the FPL and the State of WA DSHS based on their declaration we're "two families of one" figures we can pay what's currently several THOUSAND in Medicare coinsurance payments. Do they expect me to print the money or just pull it out of thin air? Or did I miss a message to die more quickly to solve their budget problems?
Posted by Danetta Amschler on 02/21/2009 @ 01:15PM PT
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Prices have come back to normal or bottomed out in all areas except NY and DC.
There are two general very good statistics to use regarding this, price/rent ratios and also the case shiller 20 city index. If you look at the case shiller 20 city index for the last 20 years you'll see that typically real estate increases in value by around 25%-50% every 10 years. Trending the index from the November 2008 numbers to February you'll see that we are very close to 125 to 150 for this index or will be reaching it by May.
Looking at the price/rent ratios is another independent means of seeing this value, and again, trended out you'll see that within the next two or three months we'll be back to normal price/rent ratios we've seen in the last 30 years. DC and NY seem to be experiencing the same fall, but lagging the rest of the index by a year or so.
Even looking at your first link http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/02/homes-still-too-pricey-to-stabilize/ you'll see that the most meaningful statistic is the ratio of median home price to median income has since 1980 been around 3.5, and trending that graph out to the present, we are back at that 3.5 level.
I saw that we were in a real estate bubble from these same statistics I've given here back in 2003, so I've been tracking this for a while. What we need to worry about now is shooting ourselves in the head for fear of what is yet to come when literally the worst is over.
Peace
Posted by Doug Vibbert on 02/21/2009 @ 08:29PM PT
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Home prices are dropping in most areas; however, in reviewing the second graph (via the link), "affordability" is still a huge issue.
If a family was earning approx. $10,000 in 1968 and their home cost about $20,000 - "affordable" would equate to nearly twice a family's annual income.
If the 2008 median income is around $50,000 then today's home would need to cost approx. $100,000. The median sale price is close to $200,000 in the graph. "Average" families still cannot afford to purchase a home. Many people need to see additional declines in housing prices before they are able to enter the market.
What this graph doesn't illustrate is the serious lack of affordable rental units. Many who have "lost" their homes will be competing for the already limited pool of "affordable" rentals. That's frightening! Where do the renters go?
Posted by Jody Mack on 02/24/2009 @ 10:43AM PT
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This is a fascinating discussion. I'll have to admit, I don't really have much expertise in the area of finances. I'm paying attention to the news and reading articles and blogs such as this to educate myself.
But i agree that the poor are demonized. "hard work pays off". In the bible it says the same thing, pretty much- but its talking about a fair system of justice based on God. What i've realized in this crisis is that our society or our government are playing god in a way because they are seeking to push responsaiblity where they think it falls, when in reality those getting hurt may not have been the ones stealing all the money or goods.
I've been thinking that the fault may go all the way around. Maybe we all had faulty ideals about money and prosperity. After all we are a CAPITALIST society to the max, right. We believe in the power of our mighty dollar and the power of our government to solve world problems. Look at the war in Iraq and how much we are spending there- doesn't it seem ironic that we pour money into another country, through war, and then our country is weakened as a result. I think it all goes back to a general mentality.
I'm glad to see that mentality being challenged and i'm glad to see CEOs being investigated by the FBI for fraud. I think there is some good in seeking retribution.
But the poor in this country or the lower middle or even middle class who buys food at walmart should not be punished.
I think there may be alot to say for forgiveness or grace in all of this. But that isn't "profitable" to the banks or to the owners of the houses or to those in financial power.
And, at the very least, I'd like to see people stay in their houses even if they cannot afford them, because having a bunch of jobless, homeless adults and children is a very destructive way to build our future country.
Posted by Elvia Knoll on 02/22/2009 @ 12:26PM PT
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HOUSING PRICES WERE ARTIFICiALLY INFLATED. THEY ARE BACK DOwN around normal now. WE CANT ALLOW A BASIC SURVIvAL NEED TO BE used for boom and bust type profiteering by big developers.
We need to figure out how to stop the bleeding but we WE CANT ALLOW PRICES TO RE-INFLATE.
WE THE demand needs to ask for 100k houses not 500k houses AS STARTER HOMES and be able to get them.
How do we MAKE PERMANENT REPAIR TO ALL ? This is the question of the day.
Posted by DARLENE MATTHEWS on 03/27/2009 @ 05:58PM PT
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